Thursday 21 April 2016

WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY by By Colonel G, D. Bakshi



WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY
By Colonel G, D. Bakshi, Indian Army, Lancer Publishers and Spantech & Lancer,
New Delhi, Hartford and London, 1997, pages 235, price US$ 28.
 


The author in this book has given an insight into the dynamics of the war leading into transformation of mankind into new civilization, in the century that has just begun.

          The author by way of pattern analysis synthesizes the conflicts, especially since the inception of Industrial revolution, and evaluates them as per current trends, to formulate a probability matrix, which he uses to determine the nature of war and conflict in the 21st century.

          The book has two parts. In Part 1(Predictions and Paradigms), which comprises of six chapters, the author evaluates the history of wars/ conflicts in light of Theory of Waves of Civilizations by Alvin Toffler, Theory of Clash of Civilizations by Paul Kennedy, Malthusian’s Trap of Global Warming and Predictions of Nostradamous. Having evaluated these theories, the author infers that the mankind after passing through Agriculture, Industrial, and Electronics Civilizations is heading for a big disaster due to Demographic Explosion and Drain-out of Fossil Fuels. Here he asserts that whatever will be left, shall turn into Bionic/ Bio-Tech Civilization which will last, may be, as long as Agro Civilization of 8000 years.

          In part 2 (Alternative Military Future), which comprises of seven chapters, the author draws the future outlines and examines the scenarios of war in the Middle East, Central Asia and South China Sea: all repositories of oil and surrounded by Muslims. Here he brings out possibilities of: one, conflict ensuing over control of these left over oil reserves, which are drying fast; two, clash of Muslim and Christian civilizations over the control of world resources.

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