WAR IN THE 21ST
CENTURY
By Colonel G, D. Bakshi, Indian Army,
Lancer Publishers and Spantech & Lancer,
New Delhi, Hartford
and London,
1997, pages 235, price US$ 28.
The author in this book
has given an insight into the dynamics of the war leading into transformation
of mankind into new civilization, in the century that has just begun.
The
author by way of pattern analysis synthesizes the conflicts, especially since
the inception of Industrial revolution, and evaluates them as per current
trends, to formulate a probability matrix, which he uses to determine the
nature of war and conflict in the 21st century.
The
book has two parts. In Part 1(Predictions and Paradigms), which comprises of
six chapters, the author evaluates the history of wars/ conflicts in light of
Theory of Waves of Civilizations by Alvin Toffler, Theory of Clash of
Civilizations by Paul Kennedy, Malthusian’s Trap of Global Warming and
Predictions of Nostradamous. Having evaluated these theories, the author infers
that the mankind after passing through Agriculture, Industrial, and Electronics
Civilizations is heading for a big disaster due to Demographic Explosion and
Drain-out of Fossil Fuels. Here he asserts that whatever will be left, shall
turn into Bionic/ Bio-Tech Civilization which will last, may be, as long as
Agro Civilization of 8000 years.
In
part 2 (Alternative Military Future), which comprises of seven chapters, the
author draws the future outlines and examines the scenarios of war in the
Middle East, Central Asia and South China Sea: all repositories of oil and
surrounded by Muslims. Here he brings out possibilities of: one, conflict
ensuing over control of these left over oil reserves, which are drying fast;
two, clash of Muslim and Christian
civilizations over the control of world resources.
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