WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY by By Colonel G, D. Bakshi

WAR IN THE 21^ST CENTURY

By Colonel G, D. Bakshi, Indian Army, Lancer Publishers and Spantech & Lancer,

New Delhi, Hartford and London, 1997, pages 235, price US$ 28.

 

The author in this book has given an insight into the dynamics of the war leading into transformation of mankind into new civilization, in the century that has just begun.

          The author by way of pattern analysis synthesizes the conflicts, especially since the inception of Industrial revolution, and evaluates them as per current trends, to formulate a probability matrix, which he uses to determine the nature of war and conflict in the 21^st century.

          The book has two parts. In Part 1(Predictions and Paradigms), which comprises of six chapters, the author evaluates the history of wars/ conflicts in light of Theory of Waves of Civilizations by Alvin Toffler, Theory of Clash of Civilizations by Paul Kennedy, Malthusian’s Trap of Global Warming and Predictions of Nostradamous. Having evaluated these theories, the author infers that the mankind after passing through Agriculture, Industrial, and Electronics Civilizations is heading for a big disaster due to Demographic Explosion and Drain-out of Fossil Fuels. Here he asserts that whatever will be left, shall turn into Bionic/ Bio-Tech Civilization which will last, may be, as long as Agro Civilization of 8000 years.

          In part 2 (Alternative Military Future), which comprises of seven chapters, the author draws the future outlines and examines the scenarios of war in the Middle East, Central Asia and South China Sea: all repositories of oil and surrounded by Muslims. Here he brings out possibilities of: one, conflict ensuing over control of these left over oil reserves, which are drying fast; two, clash of Muslim and Christian civilizations over the control of world resources.

The World in 2020 Hamish McRae

THE WORLD IN 2020

1.    Title                   -     The World in 2020

2.    Author                  -     Hamish McRae

3.    Pages                   -     302

4.    Price                   -     Not Known

5.    Published by                  -     Ali Majeed Printers 107-A Kacha

                                          Rashid Road, Lahore

About the Author

6.    Hamish McRae read economics at Trinity College, Dublin. He started his career as a journalist on the Liverpool Post, and was then successively deputy editor of The Banker, editor of Euromoney and financial editor of the Guardian before moving to the Independent in 1989, where he is now associate editor. He is co-author, with his wife Frances Cairncross, of Capital City: London as a Financial Centre. Awards include the Harold Wincott prize for financial journalism in 1979 and a commendation in the first Amex Bank Eassy awards in 1987. He is a regular radio broadcaster on LBC and BBC.

About the Book

7.    The World in 2020 is a radical new vision of the way the world is changing. It shows clearly how the cutting edge will be cultural rather than technological and why originality will prove as important  discipline in the struggle for dominance. Using analytical tools which reveal the true potential for growth and social harmony in each country, acclaimed commentator Hamish McRae shows how demographic change, the costs of social disintegration and rapidly developing new resources are bringing about profound shifts in the world order.

Critical Analysis

8.    Drawing on the best research available from Europe, Japan and America on long-term growth prospects, McRae expounds a highly original vision of the economic case for good behaviour. As the developed nations become ever more able to imitate each other innovations cross national boundaries within days and weeks rather than months and years it will be those countries which can best combine ingenuity with social order that will emerge triumphant by the year 2020. Intellectually challenging, accessible to the general reader, provocative and stimulating, The World in 2020 is an important contribution to our understanding of the world as it is now and how it will change.

9.    Author has divided the book into three parts:-

a.    Part I. In first part author has explained the factors which make some country and nation grow. Then the author has given present and future picture of North America, Europe and East Asia. He has explained his view point with the help of tables and graphs.

b.    Part II. In this part author has discussed the forces which will bring change in the world. He has discussed demography, resources and environments, Financial, Technology, Govt and society in detail.

c.    Part III. Author has given a picture of world in 2020. Then he has explained the position of North America, Europe and East Asia in future.

Comments

10.   The "book The World in 2020" is a rare combination of economics, political Judgment and human values. It clearly indicates that how the world would be in 2020. What factors will contribute towards changes, how the priorities will change? What will be the economic and political position of different countries of the world. The book is recommended to be read by officers of all ranks, specially young officers.

THE WARS OF THE BUSHES: By Stephen Tanner

THE WARS OF THE BUSHES

THE WARS OF THE BUSHES:    By Stephen Tanner

                                                            (Manas Publications,

                                                            24, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi),

                                                            297 Pages

In The Wars of the Bushes: A Father and Son as Military Leaders, military historian Stephen Tanner describes the four major military conflicts launched by the presidents Bush. After a brief description of America's military experience from Vietnam to the end of the Cold War, he begins his in-depth examinations with the invasion of Panama and the Gulf War, which were launched by Bush the elder. Both were characterized by decisive, overwhelming force, matching military capability to geopolitical goals with decisive results.
In Bush the son, Tanner has found it difficult to recognize the father, though acknowledging that while the former was greeted by the fall of the Berlin Wall in the first autumn of his presidency, the latter was greeted by the fall of New York's Twin Towers, an altogether more frightening event. But while the father built upon his opportunities to position America at the head of a global alliance, the son has adopted novel doctrines such as pre-emption and pre-eminence, which have left the United States shorn of world support.

Standing apart from other analysts, Tanner criticizes the American war in Afghanistan as a timid failure, in which Bush the younger claimed a hollow victory while allowing the leadership of the Taliban, and most importantly, Al Qaeda to escape. He then examines the long build-up to the invasion of Iraq, during which the younger Bush divested himself of the worldwide respect earned by his father in order to prosecute a war that had nothing to do with 9/11. The great WMD scare of 2002 is described in all its propagandistic intensity, as well as America’s ensuing invasion and occupation. In Iraq, according to Tanner, the United States has undertaken its first war in which it creates more enemies than it can destroy.

The Wars of the Bushes provides juxtaposition between the father's vision of America's role in the world and the son's. On the one hand stood the world's sole remaining superpower as an admired nation on the cusp of a Pax Americana, and on the other, now in the 21st century, we stand as the mistrusted head of a disparate Coalition of the Willing. Between the two Bush presidencies, the Clinton years are also examined in these pages, for all their fascination.

As the American armed forces currently fight their longest, bloodiest war since Vietnam—unwisely, as then, attempting to subdue an older, foreign culture—this book provides a valuable perspective by comparing the presidencies of two men related by blood but not by experience and character, or in a shared view of America’s unique qualities.

In The Wars of the Bushes, Tanner posits that the United States has recently taken a detour along its path to true greatness. But the solution is clear, he believes, and to solve the problem Bush the son need only look back slightly in history-to the sure handed grasp of American policies and principles that were once held by his father.

The War That Never Was Ravi Rikhye

BOOK REVIEW

BY

1.         Introduction

a.           Name of the Book.	The War That Never Was
b.           Author	Ravi Rikhye
c.           Chapters	Eleven
d.           Pages	211
e.           Published By	Ali Majeed Printers 8-C, Darbar Market, Lahore
f.            Year of Publication	1998
g.           Price	Not Known
h.           Quality of Book	-          Hard Binding -          Average Paper/Printing
j.            Printed by Army             Education Press or not	Yes
k.           Price of the book             (if known)	Not known

2.     About The Author.  The book does not include any information about Ravi Rikhye. However, as known, he is a reputed Indian writer and a journalist. Besides many other known books and columns, he also has a famous book to his credit, “The Fourth Round”. He takes special interest in international affairs, politics and strategy.

3.        Comments on Contents

a.                   General Comments on the Book. Though biased, it is a good        work carried out by the author on the war that never was. The story is about how India, despite its superior strength, lost the 1987 War That Never Was without firing a shot.  It is a comparison of the strength of both sides, so that the reader can make his or her own judgment about the enormity of India’s surrender. It is in the same context that the writer has developed the book.

b.                  Chapter 1- Brass Tacks: Events Leading Upto. The author has explained imperatives of domestic po1icy that led to a situation in which an incident with Pakistan was necessary to divert attention from the growing chaos at home. Though, India prepared to create an incident, when the time came, she let the Pakistan to outmaneuver and backed down. The author also discusses plans for Opera­tion Trident/Brass Tacks in general and analysis it critically.

c.                   Chapter 2- The Pakistan Army.  The author has gone to minute details while tracing out potentials of Pakistan Army. Though, the details given are not 100% correct but include an outline organization of armed forces, deployment, anti-tank missiles, electronic warfare ability, aviation assets, reserves and paramilitary forces.

d.                  Chapter 3- The Indian Army.  The details of Indian Army are covered briefly on the same lines as that of Pakistan Army.

e.                   Chapter 4- How India Lost All Its War.  Analysis of the proposition that war of 1947-48 and 1965 were a favorable stalemate and that of 1971 was an outright victory has been carried out in this chapter. Here the author comments that in all security crises, there have been very serious misperceptions of adversary behavior and that India repeatedly commits same mistake.

f.                   Chapter 5- The Lack Of A Red Team.  The author has remarked that in strategic crises and in war games, the red team plays the opponent and that it is led by weaker personnel which leads to a victory of friendly forces. On the other hand, once put on ground, the government and the army simply failed to comprehend Pakistan’s sound reaction resulting in India’s strategic failure.

g.                  Chapter 6- Sector Balance.  This chapter examines the balance of forces in each sector and analyses the events of the winter of 1986/87. It deals deliberately with Northern Kashmir, Southern Kashmir, Pathankot sector, Sialkot sector, Lahore sector, Multan sector and the Desert sector.

h.                  Chapter 7- The Rival Navies.  It covers the naval assets of the adversaries and relates them with the armed forces of both. After a detailed analysis, the author concludes that both are land powers and that the battle (if any) will be decided by land forces only.

j.          Chapter 8- The Rival Air Forces.  It is an analytical overview of the quantity and quality of both. This chapter also includes allies to both the countries and establishes the time frame in which either of the adversary can get outside support in terms of supply of aircrafts etc.

k.         Chapter 9- The Military Balance in the Event of War.  In a progressive manner, the author has pitched the opposing land forces against each other hypothetically basing on the deployment executed by both sides. He establishes that it was the weak political link, which forced India to back out; otherwise Pakistan could not have achieved absolute victory in any sector to dictate the terms for peace.

l.          Chapter 10- Why Operation Brass Tacks Would Have Failed.  The author dwells upon the problems being faced by the two sides and then discusses all possible dimensions of Brass Tacks. The chapter also touches the peripheral aspects of Pakistan’s strategy against Brass Tacks and too conscious approach of Indian military leadership towards execution of the offensive. The author comments that in order to achieve desired results, General Sunderji has to change the entire psychology of the Indian Army.

m.        Chapter 11- Trident.  Trident was to be an attack by Indian XV Corps on Skardu and then Gilgit with the abject of capturing the Northern Areas of Pakistan. The author analytically discusses the problems linked with this plan and says that the Indian army planners were overcome by their concepts of lightening war, thereby, allowing only two weeks to reach Gilgit via Skardu which was an impossible dream due to incorrect time calculation.

4.        Recommendations. The book covers war as the only instrument to capture Pakistan and talks of reintegration, which in any case is not acceptable to the people of Pakistan. The book is recommended for the students of military history, international affairs and strategic studies.

5.         Conclusion. This book examines Indian ability to achieve an all out victory over Pakistan in the backdrop of Brass Tacks and Trident. It leaves no stone unturned to express Indian hegemonic designs and clarifies that Pakistan Army is a potent and professional force, which has always stood to the cause. The book mainly gives out the weaknesses in Indian military and political system in general and leadership in particular. It is therefore a useful source to know about our enemy and take precautions accordingly.